This may be the most curious electoral result in British history, curated by the very strange mishmash of circumstances that preceded it.
Firstly, the results: Farage won ~63% of the vote, with Count Binface getting ~26%. Despite how that looks, Farage did not win — he just didn't lose. Count Binface won the total aura victory though.
Nigel Farage wanted to escape scrutiny from a parliamentary committee over a “gift” of five million pounds he did not declare. Let me make this point very clear: the standards committee is not investigating him because he took this money. They are investigating him because he did not declare that he received his money. This is a significant difference, because it demonstrates that even for something as simple as “here’s some money I got”, Farage is scared shitless of anyone finding out. When it was found out, he got really angry at it. Nobody cares what he will do with the money; it’s about what he will do for the money. And five million is a lot of "for".
The investigation can only be into a sitting MP, so he resigned his own seat to avoid continuing the investigation. This triggers a by-election in his seat of Clacton, a terribly neglected and deprived seaside town in SE England – the kind that’s ripe for right-wing populism where the Strong Man has All The Answers. But… He decided to stand again, hoping to use the other parties as proof that the establishment were out for him. In addition, it is the summer break for Parliament where MPs go back to their districts. Meaning that he could use the empty airwaves for his own personal gain. Make him the political star of the summer, commanding the spotlight and finally get all the glory for himself.
One problem: all the other parties refused to stand candidates, this meant that Farage had no "establishment" parties to run against. Instead of ruthlessly blaming transgender, gay, Muslim, single-mother refugee Labour voters for his problems, he would be spending his summer, alone, shouting at ghosts. How sad and pathetic.
This to me, is the first humiliation for Farage. He may be a smooth, charismatic operator, but your enemy needs to somehow be plausible to rail against. When you are part of the system of politics, you no longer look like a keen man on the edge looking in, you look like a loser ranting about your own problems. This is kind of what is happening to Trump — it's hard to talk about a deep state conspiracy when YOU are the deep state.
Now let's look at the next part of the puzzle. Count Binface. Count Binface is a novelty/satirical candidate. He is very funny and very clever. What is useful to know is that he has appeared in every high-profile parliamentary seat since Theresa May (when she was prime minister). Ergo, him standing here would be a continuation of that, under the assumption it would be like it has always been: he gets a few chats with the press, maybe about 90 votes, and makes the winner look a bit silly.
However, with the abdication of all the major parties, this means that the only meaningful anti-Farage vote becomes… Count Binface! This adds salt to the wound. Without any establishment parties to fight, Farage has very little to do other than piss into the wind. With his main opposition being a man wearing a bin for a head, every move he makes will inevitably be compared to a man wearing a bin for a head. In fact, Farage did not even turn up for hustings – a tradition where candidates face questions from locals – meaning that Farage ran away from a debate with a man wearing a bin for a head.
You see how this looks now? This means that there is no end to ribbing at Farage’s expense, which would hurt him even more. The man is all about his image, and now we have the leaders of the major political parties all agreeing that Farage is the joke candidate and Binface is the serious candidate. Even in interviews with friendly media (like GB News), Farage is facing much harder questions. There is a sense that even if Farage’s personal popularity remains (not likely), his backers are getting increasingly tired of him.
You can see that the presence of Binface has rattled Farage. Farage was always going to win, and yet he personally diverted resources away from the very important Greater Manchester Mayor race to Clacton. Reform UK even tried to dig up dirt against Count Binface, but the only thing they could find out was that… Er… He’s a real person? Well, that’s the first line of his Wikipedia article. Count Binface eludes them because he only needs to pay the paltry deposit of £500 and he’s on the ballot. His reach is pure organic. Again: Farage is doing surveillance on a man wearing a bin for his head.
Onto the meat and bones of this. In the 2024 election, Farage got ~42% of the vote and therefore won (thanks First-Past-the-Post). This means that ~56% of voters did NOT vote for Farage. If we transpose this to 2026, it is mathematically possible, but not electorally possible, for him to lose in 2026. In 2026 (ie now), he didn’t lose, ofc, because the number of votes and turnout decreased. Voters themselves boycotted the election. And those who didn’t were the committed die-hard. Remember this: no other major party ran here. This would have been a slam-dunk, Putin-style victory for Farage. Yet it wasn’t. Farage got a decent 63.3%... Against who, exactly? A man wearing a bin for his head. That’s not a convincing victory, if your victory comes because nobody else bothered to run against you. Additionally, he received a significantly smaller number of total votes compared to 2024, with fewer votes than the runner-up Conservative candidate did. So he got a bigger slice... Of a smaller pie. Er...
If you look at any street interviews in Clacton, you can notice a theme: Farage isn’t well-liked much by his supporters, but they vote for him because he’s the only one who speaks to them. If members of your cult are voting for you because they feel obligated to, then it does not seem very sustainable.
It demonstrates that even in the most Reform of Reform places, at least one quarter of voters believed that a man wearing a bin for his head was a better choice than Nigel Farage. In a one-horse race, the horse still has someone behind. If I was Farage, I would be shitting my pants in fear. Run this exact race in other parts of the UK, in places Farage wants to win and it might not be so handy. Not only that, but this demonstrates how fragile Farage is – personally and politically – if this his major moment of the summer is winning a pre-ordained victory against a satirical intergalactic space warrior.
Farage was clearly so scared that he did not even turn up to the final counting, claiming that there was a threat to his life (Essex police did not agree with this). In fact, even in the counting session, there appeared to be very few – if any Reform UK – supporters in the room. Not a very compelling victory if nobody bothers to turn up.
I will leave you with this line from Count Binface on his victory.
“I came first in the Clacton byelection! Of the candidates who bothered to turn up for the results.”
Correction: An earlier version of this post said that Farage got 70% of the vote share. He did not. He got 63.3%.